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    有分析師稱特斯拉上季度遭遇“最大慘敗”;其他分析師仍持懷疑態度

    彭博社 2019年05月05日

    分析師指出,特斯拉給的業績指引過高,而管理層在削減成本、保留資金和持續扭虧為盈方面做得不夠。

    圖片來源:Getty

    證券公司Wedbush分析師丹尼爾·艾夫斯說,特斯拉今年第一季度的業績是他研究科技股20年來見到的“最大慘敗之一”。

    艾夫斯指出,特斯拉給的業績指引過高,而管理層在削減成本、保留資金和持續扭虧為盈方面做得不夠。他說:“從《陰陽魔界》里出來的馬氏公司的行為就好像需求和利潤會神奇地回到特斯拉的故事中一樣。”

    艾夫斯將特斯拉的評級從“買入”下調至與“持有”相當的水平,并將目標價從365美元降至275美元。艾夫斯對科技公司股價暴跌并不陌生,以蘋果公司為例,1月份的盈利預警造成其市值在一天內蒸發了750億美元,并促使艾夫斯將蘋果的目標價下調了25%以上。

    兩周前,在紐約上市的特斯拉披露了遠超預期的季度虧損,同時重申產量展望并暗示有可能融資。上周四,特斯拉股價下挫4%。

    艾夫斯在給客戶的報告中寫道:“鑒于特斯拉現在的盈利軌跡,這家公司又一次被陰云籠罩,而且它現在的首席財務官缺乏經驗。目前的危險信號是特斯拉有可能在短期內不得不融資30多億美元,以滿足資本支出和債務需求。我們仍認為機器人出租車、保險產品和其他嘗試分散了對尚未解決的需求問題的注意力,這是現階段我們最擔心的。”

    其他華爾街分析師也不那么樂觀,RBC分析師約瑟夫·斯巴克認為特斯拉的業績“比預期的難看”。目前有15位分析師給予特斯拉“賣出”評級,給出“買入”評級的有12位,“持有”9位。

    摩根大通,瑞安·布林克曼

    “第二季度交貨量指引看來可能過高,而且按2019全年36-40萬輛的展望計算,下半年要比上半年環比增長35-45%左右,這進一步彰顯了實現相應目標的執行風險,需要獲得盈利和正現金流。”

    評級“減持”,目標價200美元。

    RBC Capital Markets,約瑟夫·斯巴克

    “第一季度業績比預期的難看。特斯拉維持全年交貨量指引不變,但實際情況可能證明它需要的顯著轉變偏樂觀。”

    “現金余額降至22億美元,我們認為可能需要融資。”

    評級“跑輸大盤”,目標價200美元。

    樂通公司,杰弗里·奧斯本

    “過去18-24個月,特斯拉看到下定金客戶對Model 3的需求爆發。此后隨著正常化需求的到來,特斯拉看來要進入一個不確定時期。”

    “我們認為降價基本上是在試探需求。”

    “即使特斯拉重申業績指引,我們仍認為它在某些方面是我們最近看到的前景最不明朗的公司。”

    評級“跑輸大盤”,目標價160美元。

    Evercore ISI公司,阿恩特·埃林霍斯特

    “特斯拉一個季度就虧損7億美元。它在降價的同時表示所有產品的需求都格外的好,這顯然讓人對需求產生疑問并感到擔心。”

    “我們要指出的一個亮點是語氣的變化,它說‘……目前融資的想法值得考慮’。”

    評級“跑輸大盤”,目標價240美元。

    Jefferies公司,菲利普·霍喬斯

    “除了主要數字、沒達到預期的東西和持續的壓力,我們發現汽車毛利潤率韌性、現金盈利和總流動性都好于預期,而且足以支持股價大幅上調。”

    “我們對特斯拉的看法有時很難讓人接受,但我們認為特斯拉的電動汽車/連接技術和實驗有價值(無論管理層風格如何),而且我們相信它有持續盈利的途徑。”

    評級“買入”,目標價400美元。

    Piper Jaffray公司,亞歷山大·波特

    “雖然物流挑戰以及較低的賣價顯然影響了第一季度利潤,但我們認為這是暫時現象。”

    “公司指引預示著第二季度的交貨量和利潤率都將反彈,我們認為這是合理預期。”

    “第一季度特斯拉的處境特別不利,負面因素包括季節性、美國以外的交貨量大幅上升(不利于物流成本和營運資金)以及美國稅收優惠政策的終止。”

    評級“超配”,目標價396美元。

    Baird公司,本·卡洛

    “我們確實認為特斯拉應該融資;雖然不是必不可少,但我們認為這將成為一個有利催化劑并消除這只股票面臨的不確定因素。”

    “不看好特斯拉的人可能繼續關注需求,但我們和管理層一樣持建設性觀點。”

    評級“跑贏大盤”,目標價400美元。

    Consumer Edge公司,德里克·格林

    “我們認為下半年業績更能體現需求趨勢,但特斯拉預計第二季度繼續虧損,我們認為這是個不利的意外情況。”

    “再加上埃隆表示進一步融資‘值得考慮’,現在我們覺得特斯拉成長為自給自足、高效使用資金的制造商的速度或許不像我們幾個月前認為的那么快。”

    評級“持有”,目標價310-350美元。(財富中文網)

    譯者:Charlie

    審校:夏林

    Tesla Inc.’s latest first quarter was “one of (the) top debacles” ever seen in 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said on Thursday.

    The analyst said the company’s guidance was aggressive and the management was not doing enough to cut costs, preserve capital and provide a sustained path to profitability. “Musk & Co. in an episode out of the ‘The Twilight Zone’ act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story,” Ives said.

    He downgraded the stock to the equivalent of a hold from buy, and slashed his price target to $275 from $365. Ives is no stranger to tech debacles either, such as Apple Inc.’s profit warning in January that shaved $75 billion off the iPhone maker’s market cap in a single day and prompted Ives to cut his price target on Apple by more than a quarter.

    Tesla shares dropped as much as 4 percent in New York on Thursday after the company reported a much wider-than-expected quarterly loss, reiterated its production outlook for the year and hinted at the possibility of a capital raise post-market on Wednesday.

    “At this point the writing is on the wall that Tesla will likely have to raise over $3 billion of capital in the near term to sustain its capex and debt needs, given its current profitability path, which is another black cloud over the name with an inexperienced CFO now at the helm,” Ives wrote in a note to clients. “We continue to feel robotaxis, insurance products, and other endeavors are distractions from the growing demand woes that are not being addressed which is a critical worry of ours at this juncture.”

    The rest of Wall Street wasn’t exactly jubilant either, with RBC’s Joseph Spak saying the results were “uglier than expected.” The company now has 15 analysts rating it a sell, compared to 12 with buy, and 9 with hold ratings.

    JPMorgan, Ryan Brinkman

    “While second-quarter deliveries guidance appears potentially aggressive, the full-year outlook for 360,000 to 400,000 implies a further roughly 35 percent to 45 percent sequential increase from first half of 2019 to second half of 2019, further highlighting the execution risk entailed in meeting the figures that are implied, needed to generate positive earnings and cash flow.”

    Rates underweight, price target $200.

    RBC Capital Markets, Joseph Spak

    “First-quarter results uglier than expected. Full-year delivery guidance maintained but big inflection needed which may prove optimistic.”

    “Cash balance down to $2.2 billion and we believe the probability of a capital raise increased.”

    Rates underperform, price target $200.

    Cowen, Jeffrey Osborne

    “Tesla appears to be entering into an era of uncertainty as a period of normalized demand approaches after enjoying the last 18 to 24 months of pent up demand for the Model 3 from the deposit list.”

    “We see lower prices as largely indicative of a demand fishing expedition.”

    “Even as Tesla reiterated guidance, we believe the company has some of the lowest forward-looking visibility in recent memory.”

    Rates underperform, price target $160.

    Evercore ISI, Arndt Ellinghorst

    “Tesla has just lost $700 million in a single quarter. Cutting prices whilst claiming exceptional demand for all products raises obvious questions and red flags concerning underlying demand.”

    “The silver lining we’d point to was a change in tune, ‘…there’s merit to the idea of raising capital at this point.”’

    Rates underperform, price target $240.

    Jefferies, Philippe Houchois

    “Beyond the headline, miss and ongoing stress we saw enough positive surprises from auto gross margin resilience, cash earnings, and gross liquidity to argue the shares have sufficiently re-priced.”

    “Our Tesla call is hard to live with at times but we see value in Tesla’s EV/connectivity technology and experimentation (no matter the management style) and remain confident there is a path to sustained profitability.”

    Rates buy price target $400.

    Piper Jaffray, Alexander Potter

    “Although logistical challenges – along with lower transaction prices – had an obvious impact on first-quarter profitability, we think this was temporary.”

    “Guidance implies a second-half recovery for both deliveries and margins, and this seems reasonable to us.”

    “First-quarter suffered from a particularly nasty combination of headwinds, including seasonality, a big buildup of non-U.S. deliveries (negative for logistics costs and working capital), as well as the expiration of tax incentives in the United States.”

    Rates overweight, price target $396.

    Baird, Ben Kallo

    “We do think Tesla should raise capital; while not essential, we believe it would be a positive catalyst and remove an overhang on the stock.”

    “Demand will likely remain a focus for bears, though we share management’s constructive view.”

    Rates outperform price target $400.

    Consumer Edge, Derek Glynn

    “We think second-half results will be more indicative of underlying demand trends, but we view Tesla’s expectation for another loss in (the) second quarter as a negative surprise.”

    “Coupled with Elon’s commentary about there being ‘merit’ to raising additional capital, we now think Tesla is perhaps not maturing as quickly into the self-sufficient and capital-efficient manufacturer we thought was possible just a few months ago.”

    Rates equal weight, price target $310 from $350.

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