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    投資理財

    衰退即將來臨?預測指標已達2007年后最高

    Mary Romano 2019年06月09日

    投資者如果對短期債券出的價更低,唯一的原因是他們擔心市場前景暗淡。

    債券市場正在發出一個響亮的信號:即將出現衰退。

    10年期美國國債的收益率已經跌破3月期國債的收益率水平。10年期國債收益率為2.245%,3月期為2.369%,目前的收益率差距是自2007年以來的最高水平。這種“倒掛”令人擔憂,因為比起長期債券,投資者如果對短期債券出的價更低,唯一的原因是他們擔心市場前景暗淡。

    債券價格和收益走勢相反,投資者因擔心經濟放緩以及美中貿易戰繼續,導致債券價格飆升(收益率下降)。同樣的擔憂導致股市暴跌。

    專家說,不要忽視債券市場的響亮警告,但也不要驚慌失措。Nuveen公司的固定收益策略主管托尼·羅德里格茲說:“了解債券市場向你傳達的信息,了解其中的原因,做出你自己(關于風險偏好)的決定。”倒掛的收益率曲線“向更廣闊的市場表明,經濟市場正在走弱。這就是它發出的信號,你不能忽視。”該公司管理的資產為9890億美元。

    在此期間,市場“將走在市場前面”,但羅德里格茲并不認為即將迎來經濟衰退。他說,如果貿易談判繼續,看不到結束的希望,就要調整你的投資組合,確保你沒有把大多數資金都投在了高風險或低風險的資產上。保持居中。“向更優質、流動性更強、更多樣化的投資組合調整。”他建議道。

    現在的債券市場是一個有吸引力的投資市場嗎?芝加哥Ariel Investments的副董事長查爾斯·鮑勃林斯科伊并不這么認為。他說,相較于收益率跌至2.21%低位的10年期美國國債,“能源、銀行和醫療保健領域一些優質、安全的股票股息要高得多。”他舉了強生、埃克森美孚和摩根大通的例子,這些股票的股息在穩步增長。“現在不是把錢投入債市的好時機。”他說,“如果你害怕股市,那么持有現金總沒有錯。現在不是購買10年期債券的好時機。”

    債券投資者擔心持續緊張的貿易局勢將損害經濟,迫使美聯儲降息來推動經濟增長。鮑勃林斯科伊表示,得益于低通脹、低失業率、工資增長、消費者信心提高及其他因素,他認為這種情況不會發生。“我和大眾的看法有點不太一樣。”他說,“除非經濟真正疲軟,否則我們不太可能降息。”

    5月30日公布的數據顯示,美國第一季度修正后的經濟增長率為3.1%,超過分析師預計的3%,投資者對經濟衰退的擔憂情緒因此有所緩解。美國商務部此前預估的增長率為3.2%。

    鮑勃林斯科伊對債券市場作為衰退預測指標的“杰出聲譽”持懷疑態度(經濟衰退的定義是,GDP連續兩個季度出現負增長)。“我認為債券投資者沒有預言水晶球,其他人也都沒有。”他說,“經濟衰退是難以預測的,除非你已經處于經濟衰退中。”鮑勃林斯科伊說,2001年9月11日恐怖襲擊發生后,收益率曲線倒掛,美國經濟發生衰退;但在“9·11”之后經濟會受到沖擊,這實在算不上什么先見之明。“30年來,出現過三四次收益率曲線倒掛、經濟衰退的情況。我不認為這個數據特別有說服力。”

    投資者無疑希望他是對的。但是,至少在現在這種情況下,不要說債券市場沒有提前警告你。(財富中文網)

    譯者:Agatha

    The bond market is sending a loud signal: There’s a recession on the horizon.

    Yields on 10-year U.S. treasuries have fallen below yields on three-month government notes. With yields on the 10-year at 2.245%, and yields on the three-month at 2.369%, the current yield gap is the widest it has been since 2007. Such “inversions” are worrisome since the only reason investors would pay less for short-term bonds than long-term ones is if they fear the future is bleak.

    Bond prices and yields move in opposite direction, and investors have sent bond prices soaring (and yields falling) on fears the economy is slowing and the U.S.-China trade war will drag on. Those same fears have caused the stock market to slump.

    Don’t ignore the bond market’s loud warning, but don’t panic over it say experts. “Understand what the bond market is telling you and why, and then make your decision’” about your appetite for risk, said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen, which has $989 billion in assets under management. The inverted yield curve is “telling the broader markets that economic markets are weakening. That’s the signal and you can’t ignore it.”

    The market “is going to get ahead of itself” in the meantime but Rodriguez doesn’t see a recession coming. If trade talks continue with no end in sight, rework your portfolio so it’s not stacked with mostly high risk or low risk investments, he said. Stick to the middle ground instead. “Move in the direction of higher quality and greater liquidity and a more diversified set of investments,” he recommends.

    Is the bond market an attractive place to put your money right now? Charles Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments in Chicago, doesn’t think so. He said there’s a number of “top-quality, safe names in energy, banking and health care that pay significantly higher dividends” than the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which fell to as low as 2.21%. He cited Johnson & Johnson, Exxon Mobil Corp. and JP Morgan Chase & Co., each offering dividends that have increased steadily over time. “Now is not a great time to put money into bonds,” he said. “If you’re afraid of the stock market, then there’s nothing wrong with cash. It’s just not a good time to buy 10-year bonds.”

    Bond investors are worried that continuing trade tensions will hurt the economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to help boost growth. Bobrinskoy said he doesn’t see that happening thanks to subdued inflation, low unemployment, wage growth and strong consumer confidence, among other factors. “I’m a little bit of an outlier,” he said. “It’s unlikely we’ll have a rate cut unless we have real weakness in the economy.”

    Investors got a reprieve from recession fears with data out on May 30 showing the U.S. economy grew at a revised 3.1% rate in the first quarter, beating the 3% expected by analysts. The Commerce Department had earlier estimated growth at 3.2%.

    Bobrinskoy is skeptical of the bond market’s “extraordinary reputation” as a recession predictor (a recession being defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth). “I don’t believe bond investors have any crystal ball and no one else does, either,” he said. “It’s very hard to predict downturns in the economy until you are already in it.” After the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the yield curve inverted and the U.S. had a recession, Bobrinskoy said. It was hardly a prescient prediction that the economy would take a hit after 9/11, he said. “It’s been about three or four times in 30 years where the yield curve inverted and we got a recession. I don’t find that particularly powerful.”

    Investors are no doubt hoping he’s right. However, at least in this case, don’t say the bond market didn’t warn you.

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