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    這位華裔參選美國總統,準備給全體美國人每月發1000美元

    Sy Mukherjee 2019年07月03日

    美國民主黨2020年大選候選人楊安澤談“全民基本收入”計劃的經濟社會影響。

    楊安澤在一眾美國總統候選人中顯得十分另類。這位華裔候選人是一名連續創業人,他曾經創辦過一個叫Venture for America的非營利機構,該機構也為硅谷創業界輸送了很多人才。

    現在,楊安澤已經正式宣布將征戰民主黨的黨內初選。他將作為民主黨的候選人之一參加了黨內辯論。與他同參辯論的還有前副總統拜登、參議員伯尼·桑德斯和卡瑪拉·哈里斯等。楊安澤的口號十分激進,稱要給全體美國人發一筆全民基本收入,又稱“自由紅利”。

    目前看來,楊安澤在民主黨候選人中屬于知名度較低的一個,2020年入主白宮的可能性不大。從民調和籌款情況看,他的支持率足以入圍上周四的民主黨黨內辯論,但在民主黨的所有候選人中仍然是墊底的一個。不過楊安澤相信,在這個自動化的時代,他在“自由紅利”、醫保和資本主義的未來等問題上的立場,足以使他超越現有的支持者群體,躋身于政界的最高層。今年早些時候,楊安澤曾經向《財富》雜志介紹過自己的政治理念,以及他為何認為自己有把握在2020年大選中擊敗特朗普。

    楊安澤是何許人也?

    楊安澤自稱很享受自己不被人看好的現狀。他當過律師,搞過慈善,也是一名硅谷創業人(創業成績參差不齊),也為很多創業項目提供過支持,尤其是通過他創辦的非營利機構Venture for America。

    楊安澤之所以起了從政的念頭,是因為在他看來,未來自動化必將全面替代人力,從而導致大面積失業。因此,楊安澤把“全民基本收入”作為他競選的核心口號。

    什么是全民基本收入(UBI)?

    楊安澤口中的“全民基本收入”,又被其競選團隊稱作“自由紅利”,是指每個18歲以上的美國公民每月都應該獲得1000美元的基本收入,沒有任何附加條件。

    對于一個自稱為資本家的人來說,這個社會主義特色十足的表態自然令人感到驚訝。不過楊安澤對《財富》雜志表示,降低科技對勞動力的負面影響是絕對必要的。他在《對普通人的戰爭》(The War on Normal People)一書中詳解了他的觀點。

    他解釋道:“有了‘自由紅利’,經濟才會開始更好地為我們服務。在現實中,它會改善人們的營養狀況,提高畢業率……在國民經濟中直接創造200多萬個就業崗位,因為貨幣會在當地企業中流通,當地企業的經營狀況就會好轉,從而雇傭更多工人。”

    總之,楊安澤相信,他的“全民基本收入”計劃會促使美國變成一個消費型經濟體,同時顯著促進就業率增長——這是一個關鍵目標,因為在不久的將來,無人駕駛汽車和各種先進算法必將迎來爆發式增長,多達三分之一的勞動力可能會面臨失業。

    這個前景確實非常誘人。畢竟,誰不想什么也不干就每個月拿1000美元呢?當然,對楊安澤的計劃最常見的質疑,就是這樣一個體系是否具有可行性。對此,楊安澤表示,可以設計一套新的稅收體系,一是要扭轉亞馬遜等科技巨頭繳稅過低的現狀,二是要彌補現行稅法中的其他漏洞。

    楊安澤表示:“我們必須做出一項重大改變,那就是加入其他發達國家的行列,改收增值稅。”增值稅是在產品供應鏈的各個環節都會征收的一種附加稅,增值稅在歐盟國家很常見。楊安澤認為,如果美國實行了增值稅,哪怕稅率只有歐洲國家的一半,也可以為政府帶來每年8000億美元的額外收入。再加在全民普遍收入帶來的儲蓄和經濟增長,該體系至少在理論上是自洽的。

    楊安澤的“全民基本收入”計劃還有一點十分重要,它將取代現有的政府福利項目。比如拿了“自由紅利”的人,就不能再領食品券了。

    楊安澤表示:“我最不愿意做的就是剝奪美國人需要的福利。我的計劃是將‘自由紅利’變成一個自愿選擇項目,如果你選擇加入‘自由紅利’計劃,你就相當于自愿放棄了現有社會福利項目。所以如果你之前的社會福利的價值超過了每月1000美元,你完全可以拒絕‘自由紅利’計劃……當然,如果你的孩子長到了18歲,他也能每月領取1000美元的基本收入了,這對一個家庭可能將是翻天覆地的變化。”

    楊安澤認為,這種方式也會降低“全民基本收入”計劃的整體成本,因為很多美國人可能會選擇不加入UBI,就算大多數人加入了,政府需要多花的錢,也無非是他們原有的福利計劃與每月1000美元之間的差額之和。

    楊安澤在醫保等重要問題上的立場是什么?

    “全民基本收入”顯然是楊安澤的核心競選口號,也是他與民主黨陣營以及特朗普的最大差異點。在這個世界日益自動化的時代,這個口號對焦慮的工人階級也很有吸引力。

    除了UBI之外,楊安澤在他的競選網站上還張貼了100多個提案,涵蓋了醫保、氣候政策、降低法定投票年齡等方方面面的議題(楊安澤自己也承認,有些提議只是為了引起大家的議論,比如他要求國會應該定期更新現行法律)。

    比如,楊安澤是支持全民醫保的,該政策也得到了參議員伯尼·桑德斯和伊莉莎白·沃倫的支持。站在楊安澤的角度看,考慮到勞動力市場的深刻變化,以及勞動與美國醫保覆蓋率之間的內在聯系,他對全民醫保的支持是很容易理解的。不過楊安澤也對《財富》雜志表示,他支持給予美國政府一定的過渡期。

    他還提出了“人本資本主義”的理念。“人本資本主義”的一個核心理念,是“人本資本主義經濟的基本單元是每一個人,而不是每一美元。”

    要想從2020年大選的眾多候選人中脫穎而出,楊安澤還有很長的路要走。從民調看,他的支持率遠低于拜登、桑德斯等人。(財富中文網)

    譯者:樸成奎

    Andrew Yang doesn’t have the typical pedigree for a presidential candidate. The serial entrepreneur, who founded Venture for America, stems from the Silicon Valley crowd.

    But Yang is running a Democratic presidential campaign (and will be among the 2020 candidates on stage at tonight’s Democratic debate, which will also feature former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris, and others) centered on the radical notion of universal basic income, or UBI, which Yang dubs a “Freedom Dividend.”

    Yang is still a long shot and relative unknown – his polling and fundraising support, while enough to qualify for last Thursday’s Democratic debate, still puts him near the bottom of the 2020 candidate pack. But he feels confident that his positions on UBI, health care, and the future of capitalism in an age of automation can propel him beyond his dedicated fan base and into the political stratosphere. Yang spoke on camera with Fortune earlier this year to discuss his views and why he thinks he has the best shot of beating President Donald Trump in the 2020 election.

    Who is Andrew Yang?

    Yang likes to say that he relishes his underdog status. He’s been a lawyer, a philanthropist, a Silicon Valley startup founder (with mixed results), and an evangelist for entrepreneurship programs, including through his Venture for America nonprofit.

    But what’s fueled his political ambitions is the specter of automation and the massive job losses Yang predicts it will foster. Hence, the focus on UBI.

    What is Universal Basic Income (UBI)?

    Yang’s version of UBI, or what his campaign calls a “Freedom Dividend,” is that every American citizen above the age of 18 should get $1,000 per month, no questions asked.

    It’s a striking position for a self-professed capitalist. But Yang told Fortune it’s absolutely critical to mitigating the effects of technology on the labor force. (He outlines his arguments in far greater detail in his book, The War on Normal People.)

    “The economy would start working better for us with the Freedom Dividend,” he said. “If you look at what happens in practical terms, people’s nutrition improves, graduation rates go up over time… It would create over two million new jobs directly in the economy because money would circulate through local businesses, and then local businesses would have to turn around and hire an extra worker.”

    In essence, Yang believes his UBI proposal could create a consumer-fueled economy that’s also markedly pro-job growth – a critical goal when as much as a third of workers could face unemployment when technologies such as self-driving trucks, sophisticated algorithms, explode in the near future, according to Yang.

    It’s a tantalizing prospect. After all, who wouldn’t want $1,000 per month, guaranteed, without having to do anything? The most common criticism, predictably, is whether such a system could ever be realistically implemented. Yang’s response to the detractors? Implement a new tax system to make up for the minimal taxes paid by tech behemoths such as Amazon and other holes in the tax code.

    “The big change we have to make is that we have to join the rest of the advanced world and have a value added tax,” he said. Value added taxes (or VATs) are consumption taxes paid at all stages of a product’s supply chain. They’re common in European nations, and Yang says that a VAT at even half the level of European countries could generate an additional $800 billion in annual revenues for the government. Combined with the ostensible savings and economic growth Yang claims would stem from UBI, the system would theoretically pay for itself (and then some).

    There’s a critical caveat in Yang’s UBI approach: It would supplant existing government welfare programs such as food stamps for those who choose to take advantage of the Freedom Dividend.

    “The last thing I want to do is deprive Americans of programs they need. My plan is to make the Freedom Dividend opt-in. But if you opt-in, then you’re choosing to forgo benefits from pre-existing welfare programs. So if you’re getting more than $1,000 in monthly benefits you can say, no thanks… Though, you’ll still have a benefit if you have a child who turns 18 and starts getting $1,000 per month, which can be a game-changer for families.”

    In Yang’s mind, that approach would also lower the overall price tag for UBI, as many Americans may choose not to opt-in and the total spending cost for those who do would be the net difference between $1,000 per month and what they’re receiving in benefits currently.

    What are Andrew Yang’s positions on health care and other important issues?

    UBI is clearly Yang’s hobby horse and what he says will set him apart from both the rest of the Democratic field and President Donald Trump. It’s an appeal to working class anxieties in an age of automation.

    But Yang also has more than 100-odd proposals on his campaign website covering everything from health care, to climate policy, to lowering the voting age, and a host of other ideas (some of which the candidate himself admits are meant to spark conversations, such as his plan that would require Congress to regularly renew existing laws).

    For instance, Yang supports Medicare for All, the signature universal health care policy supported by candidates like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. It makes sense given Yang’s views on the changing nature of the labor force and the way that work is intrinsically tied to insurance coverage in America right now. However, Yang told Fortune would support a transition period to such a government program.

    He also pushed the prospect of “human-centered capitalism.” One of its basic tenets? “The unit of a Human Capitalism economy is each person, not each dollar.”

    Yang has a long ways to go in a crowded 2020 presidential field. His performance in Thursday night’s debates will prove a key chapter in his quest.

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